Author(s) :

AHMAD Amina Abubakar.

Volume/Issue :

Abstract :

The protracted crisis in Plateau State, north-central Nigeria, is one of the most enduring manifestations of subnational insecurity in West Africa's Middle Belt. Since the 2001 Jos riots, the state has experienced recurring cycles of ethno-religious rioting, rural farmer–herder violence, and, most recently, coordinated night-time attacks on farming communities, most notably the December 2023 Christmas Eve massacres in Bokkos, Barkin Ladi, and Mangu Local Government Areas, in which independent monitors confirmed well over 190 deaths. This study interrogates the structural drivers, evolving dynamics, and governance failures underpinning the conflict. Adopting a descriptive, mixed-methods design that combines qualitative document analysis with a review of conflict-event data reported by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), government agencies, and human-rights organisations, the paper situates the Plateau crisis within the broader frameworks of political economy, environmental scarcity, identity politics, and state fragility. The review indicates that the conflict is multi-causal, involving competition over land and grazing corridors, the institutionalisation of indigene–settler citizenship distinctions, elite manipulation of ethnic and religious identities, arms proliferation, and the limited territorial reach of state security architecture, including the military's Operation Safe Haven. Documented casualty and displacement figures across episodes in 2001, 2008, 2010, and 2023 reveal a shift from urban, election-linked rioting toward ruralised, asymmetric, and increasingly lethal violence, with reported fatalities for Plateau State between 2023 and 2025 alone estimated at over 2,600. The paper argues that sustainable peace in Plateau State requires a shift from reactive, militarised responses toward integrated security-sector reform, land and grazing governance reform anchored on the National Livestock Transformation Plan, and structural socio-economic and legal reforms addressing indigeneity-based exclusion. Keywords: Plateau State; Nigeria; farmer–herder conflict; indigene–settler divide; political economy of violence; security governance; state fragility.

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